La tarcoteca

by Pablo Heraklio, PHkl/tctca. Contact at Tarcoteca@riseup.net
Mostrando entradas con la etiqueta economy. Mostrar todas las entradas
Mostrando entradas con la etiqueta economy. Mostrar todas las entradas

jueves, 20 de septiembre de 2012

World Devaluation Plan: U.S. working as a Chinese. The Fed devaluation strength to match with China wages


The heads of the Fed, Federal Reserve of United States, have decided to turn on the dollars printing machine to devalue the currency. But either way, but for the purchase of junk mortgages, the so-called "bad bank" in Spain.
- The Federal Reserve announced a new monetary stimulus plan in order to give life to the famished U.S. economy where unemployment remains well above the levels that existed before the outbreak of the crisis.
- So that from this month and unlimited amount of time, the Fed will buy 40 billion dollars in mortgage-backed securities, ie toxic assets or "financial weapons of mass destruction" that triggered the current crisis .
- Is a crucial commitment to revitalize the U.S. economy by way of the devaluation of the dollar. This plan, coupled with released last week by the ECB, makes it clear that today nobody wants to have a strong currency and each block is determined to weaken its currency and sink.
Translating: Devaluation and 'bad bank'.
  The Americans are in a financial system lock and productive stop. Have find two solutions to this problems: cash injection into banks to promote liquidity and promote currency devaluation to increase exports.
   The maneuver is classic, but the novelty is that the Fed is behaving like the "bad bank". Is buying mortgages, freeing them banks of toxic assets while dollars flooded the market. As in Spain or Ireland the Fed is not intended to reduce the burden on homeowners with mortgages. Just the opposite. People who have lost their homes can take for "devalued", mission accomplished. The Fed does not want or can sell these foreclosed properties, their claim is demolished and make new ones, as in Ireland, so its price will plummet until it reaches the market price. The Fed will lose money in change and consummate the devaluation. Two birds with one stone.
  The delicate balance of Fed devaluation is how to keep unemployment above 8%.
  This is a maneuver that euro countries like Spain are unable to perform due to technical reasons.
 Does prayer card scam? Fed QE3 and unlimited monetary expansion

World Devaluation plan
  U.S. throws in the towel, as Europe gets rid of the idea of ​​the welfare state and maintain a large middle class. Opt for the devaluation, reduced wages and services. Its objective is matching salaries with those of Southeast Asia.
  The draft of global devaluation and wage equalization is underway. The Chinese average wage is about 300-500 € / month, countries like Greece have already lowered from 800 to 600€. Greece and Portugal are achieving their objectives, have taken about eight years, and they have left, until the consummation of the plan to reach 500 € month, for at least another 8. Germany has the minijobs, 2 million people subsisting on € 400 a month, the new pariah. In Spain have managed to reduce by 20% the general purchasing power thanks to a 25% unemployment and a tax increase in just two years. The next step is to translate it into the reduction of the minimum wage and reviewing agreements. The problem is that unemployed has no productive uses: spare.
  Exercise: We start 2000 € / month average wage in USA. Each year can decrease about 100 €. Moreover starting from 400 € month in China, with annual growth of 7%, which means that every 15 years the salary is twice. When deemed equivalent? With this plan, if all goes well, in about 20 years, in 2030. We do not believe an 100% adjust, but will approach, emphasizing socioeconomic differences in USA.
  But that's not all, because when wages are equalized to the Southeast Asian maquilas will move to Africa, or South America, where there are already many emplaced, starting a new round of devaluation.
  At no time Fed have proposed the reduction of debt. In contrast, provide for the generation of money will firing debt.

Conclusions
  The system has not been touched, so we will continue to suffer gusting balls and crisis. The U.S. population will suffer a progressive loss of general purchasing power and will be accompanied by a re-concentration of capital in the hands of four offshore and a complete polarization of society. The creation of ghettos around cities is evident. The Transnational companies control over the state will be clearer if cave, since money is fiduciary and the state, through the police and the army, the guarantor of the debts are paid. Yet perhaps manage to maintain its productive and unemployment under the 8%.
  Life U.S. foreign policy is marked by dependence of recurring wars that have produced most of the foreign debt and world domination. But as we see, the existence of debt is not what they most value, but the value of its currency, so it is reasonable to conduct further invasions, which help to devalue its currency, and allowing them to reach their goal before .

 We headed to a world-ghetto: the employee living and working in barracks. The owner living in neighborhoods and fortified luxury complex, shopping with his bodyguards in his armored limousine. This image is already common in many cities. No more middle class.

  Money is the definitive system of subjugation of the weak by imposition or stupid by manipulation. Along with the production system, based on private property and the protection of the army and police are the base and apex of capitalism. It's a hoax.
  There will be no re-evolution without chage of exchange system.
  Can we organize ourselves to achieve a system, that be not only just, but that does not require money and based on real needs and capabilities? The media around us say yes. If we organize ourselves, will be able both system to live together? If the answer is yes let's work. If the answer is no: let's work harder.
There are Cooperatives. There are Assemblies. Let's use it!
                     θα καταστρέψει τον καπιταλισμό ή να καταστραφεί.

jueves, 12 de julio de 2012

Spanish public employees lose 20% of its purchasing power in less than a year.

Crisis for public employee in numbers:
  To the elimination of christmas extra pay this year, up 7% of public employee purchasing power on average, which the state is looking to save some 4billions €, its add the increase of 3% VAT gives us the beautiful figure of 10% total loss of purchasing capacity who suddenly suffer today July 12.
  If is also add the 10% loss of purchasing power resulting from a wage freeze for 2011 of 5%, 2% of the CPI, 2% income tax, and no had to add the increase from 35 to 37.5 hours per week from the last year 2011, the accumulated loss is an amazing 20% ​​in 2012, in just one year!
Poor spanish public servants, literally.

Impacts:
- Politics: Spain has lost any semblance of selfcontrol over its economy, leaving the country participated at the mercy of banks and European interests.
  The cuts do not affect the state causes of its "morbid obesity": political office duplication and the payment of monumental building and constructions debts . Corruption and brick.
  Cuts affect the functionality of the state itself. The steps, according to the elimination of civil service jobs, will produce slow-down, overload and collapse of some services. As an example justice, with an average wait of 4 years for a trial, or Health service, where the targeted maximum wait for operations shall be 1 month has gone far beyond, and many visits to a specialist take over a year. The state will suffer.
- Economics: As underlying problem are not resolvend they will increase, and will need of further actions like these to be remedied. Cuts, privatizations and labor reform.
- Socials: Years of numbness and complacency with "the boss" made socially lazy officials and even reactionary. Now that they see the consequence of their alienation begin mobilization. The first reactions in the form of work stoppages and strikes by officials have not been long in coming. Today they have  expressed their complais in Congress. Nothing that can not be solved with more police.

  The state is sabotaging himself. Logical, serves banking, and they are only interested in themselves. Deterioration gives the 2013 date as the key for an end to unemployment benefits, increased cost of funding in international markets and various loan maturities. If Spain falls euro so. Peseta, corralito, banking saves freeze, restabling borders and badge devaluation. Then the loos of work rights and salary cuts will seem even benign.
  The state is a giant with feet of clay, and in it shaky wandering threatens to destroy everything. Somehow we must give the lace. The weakness of the state is an opportunity for alternatives. The main thing is to have a solid project and avoid the police repression and the threat of the army.
Self-managed unions and cooperatives and no-NGOs groups are already at work. They need us, we need them.
Organize and fight!

domingo, 1 de julio de 2012

Spanish tax amnesty fails: government new miscalculation.

Neither big business nor the wealthy are taking in the tax amnesty decreed by the Government earlier this year with a focus precisely on these two sectors of the tax rolls. This is the paradox that illustrate the filtered data this week Cadena SER, according to which only 115 have submitted applications for regularization of money defrauded the Treasury during the first 15 days of validity of the pardon, and none of them before the General Large Taxpayers.http://www.elconfidencial.com/economia/2012/07/01/por-que-los-grandes-patrimonios-renuncian-a-la-participar-en-la-amnistia-fiscal-101040/
Background to the Tax Amnesty
  The measure was originally proposed as an investigation prove that spanish familiar Botin clan, Santander Bank's owners, had been defrauding thousands of euros in accounts just in Switzerland. As the offense was flagrant, was proposed that if some of the money returned  the crime would forget. Case Filed: Green light to tax amnesty.
  The government, aware that tax evasion is like a third of state revenue, porpuse the measure to remedy the situation without having to suffer the consequences of its acts: fines and penalties. They wanted to stretch the "Botín Amnesty" model to the rest of fortunes. In its claim government wanted to extort by economic pressure on the oligarchs, who are the same politicians and businessmen in govern, to declare hidden assets and capital in exchange for not being prosecuted as common thieves. Tax amnesty was proposed. Another goal was to raise about € 9 billion to bail out banks to inject liquidity to keep on defrauding.
  Failure!

Causes of failure
   For some businesses are empty, undercapitalized, depleted. Maybe in 2008 would have achieved some results, but not at this stage of the game. Capital have left the country disappointed. They are safe in tax havens or Germany.
   To follow the ministry has cut budget and eliminated large fortunes inspections departments, so the fraudster feel safer.
   Finally there are large uncertainties on the implementation of the amnesty and its implications: despite being anonymous statement there are risks of leakage, and it is feasible to create a blacklist of fraudsters (in othe hand people know by everybody).
  The oligarchs, politicians and businessmen, do not need pardons because they are the ones who decide who goes and who does not go to jail, thing of poors.

Conclusion
  This is yet another miscalculation by the government. It's funny that people with so much ego and condescending even keep them from committing these blunders that leave their credibility at the level of the pokemon. They fail and fail and yet show their faces as if they did a good job. This attitude shows what is called ventriloquist complex : Montoro Economic Minister put plaster face while "someone" manipulates the puppet: Santander Bank, Bankia, Caixabank etc ... The financial conspiracy.
  In private enterprise you go to the doll for less, we have seen people cry becouse of forget to mourn a date. In contrast, in public, as we see, you renew for four years.
  The government wanted liquidity for all costs and obtained a delicious diarrhea.
  Inept breed.

Death to the state, long live anarchy!

jueves, 31 de mayo de 2012

Rescue of Spain, the bubble that will drag Europe

The Spanish government has tried to inject public debt instead of cash in Bankia. This operation is a variant of REPO operations made by the ECB. On the one hand, this prevented the soaring costs of financing the debt markets. On the other, opened the door to the ECB liquidity injection in Bankia by repurchasing these debt or by use as securities bounds. [...] While the game is staged tension between Spain and the ECB needed to save the political profiles of each other, the Commission has already taken the field elsewhere. Since the beginning of the Spanish crisis, the mandate of ECB has been disciplinary: not doing anything for relief debt peaks until no counterparts were deleted . [translated form the article: http://www.diagonalperiodico.net/La-intervencion-de-Espana-ya-esta.html]
Brussels has heard the call of the markets about the banking system and it seems that will give what they demand. The European Commission is studying the direct recapitalization of banks through the Permanent Rescue Fund, and a move towards unification of the banking system, as reported by the agency on Wednesday in the heat of the harsh criticism about the measures adopted to the date and the need for more and more stock shares to reduce the deficit. [Translated form the article: http://www.elconfidencial.com/economia/2012/05/30/la-ce-matiza-la-inyeccion-del-fondo-de-rescate-no-es-una-opcion-para-la-banca-de-espana-99006/]
  In few words, they don't know how, but Spain can be taken for rescued.
Sorry for the contempt, they know.

The states have proved unable to manage its debt
   Spain has proved unable to manage its debt, taking austerity measures to plug a hole of € 8 billion when the real is more than 50 billion €. Politicians, government, inspectors and all kind of managers have been genuine inept. Not so the banks, who have made a killing spoil feast in crisis. Old School.

Europe has proved incapable of managing the state debt
  The ECB says does not trust in the spanish state is determinated to inject money directly to banks. As it is shown and proved that banks lie, given the hole, to other banks, the government of Spain, Europe and markets in general; unhinged buyers who do not know what to expect. Llied to perform the operation.
  The ECB already know the diagnosis and course of the disease, suffered with Greece: Bankruptcy. In this illness the hole is always greater than what they say they have estimated. It is non-refillable for several reasons:
   - Continue existing housing stock, so the value of bank assets has not touched the ground.
   - The relocation of companies makes products incompetent and its imported more than it is exported.
   - The "capital flight" drains the money to it origin: Germany puts the bailout money> it gives banks> these deposit them in a strong economy contry, curiously Germany is favorite.
  All this they knew that would happen in Greece, and still was rescued. Initially Mario Draghi, as Sanchs & Poors Advisor, was contrated to audit the country, to launch sanitation and start clipping. Mario ended up asking for a ransom of € 150 billion. The money vanished with the known capital flight and returned, as we report, Germany, Holland and some tax havens. For now its seen who is winning.

Germany is uneable to invest in operated states
  Germany wears, unable to sell their products or collect debts on time. Still does not stop the locomotive.
  To Germany economy at first does not interested in problems in the eurozone. It makes harms to Germany in short and medium term, but benefit in long times, possibiling to get its "vital space" at a bargain price. Could seems to exist a predetermined plan to take over the eurozone, literally. But not now: the intervened countries are in a state of neoliberal exarcebación preventing any kind of investment in their companies. Although a german manager should place in one of this compaies the Spanish oligarchies would sink their efforts, to stealing even its underwear.
   The Germans oligarchs are able to orchestrate a sack of continental proportions, but judging by the lurches which has its politics and economy, and expoleados by the scourge of capitalist austerity as if it were a PIIG, this pictures is, by now, unlikely.

Europe forges another bubble to benefit investment groups
   The European Institutions do not avoid, deliberately, the problems in the eurozone. Constantly accrue the problem. Gives gasoline to the arsonist, distributes money to usury like confetti, to countries that are not going to be able to return, refinaceing constantly, which is the same as was done with toxic loans and subprimes. Require a containment that crumble countries, preventing its development.
   In short, they will creat another bubble in Spain. This will explode throughout europe, which is who make the money, including Germany.
  As seen the European authorities and international institutions, beyond the range of governments and states, far from ending with the economic problems try to develop them. ECB, IMF, S&P stands behind whith hiden names. Names with flesh and bone one day pay.

And the solution?
   For a state there are thousands of solutions, but does not like any. Featuring:
- Create productive industry with direct investment. It is required consent of Germany, who hopes not to lose exclusivity.
- Deferring repayment of loans. Impossible not to raise the interest without choke and causing capital flight that pull the money.
- Restructuring of public administration. It would mean have to fight against regional political oligarchies: Impossible.
- Increase fiscal control over businesses and companies: is preferred tax amnesty.

    For a individual. As this is pure science fiction, we are confident that the solution is not the State or Europe. Under present conditions demand every man hepl himself. And that means that each of us must try to rescue himself without waiting for a preserver lead life. We in tarcoteca are anarchists, we organize. Now more than ever we look for alternatives outside the capitalist system, such as cooperatives. The truth is that there are not many.

After so many years the state will fall prey to its own barbarity.
Death to the state and long live anarchy!

For more information in spanish: http://www.cotizalia.com/en-exclusiva/2012/05/31/los-hedge-pagan-intereses-de-hasta-el-10-para-especular-contra-los-bancos-1217/

viernes, 4 de mayo de 2012

Spain runs straight to the second speculative bubble crash: evictions

Spain after second crash
The first bubble in 2008 grew out of the new flats unsold. The second bubble in 2013 will be the result of eviction.
   "The new unemployed are concentrated in the age groups with greater exposure to mortgages, which further worsens the outlook. JP Morgan estimates that unemployment will reach 30% in our country.
   JP Morgan gets that mortgage delinquencies will cause a loss of 59,000 million. "At a minimum, we expect a sharp increase in defaults from current levels," they conclude.
   "Forcing banks to increase their cash provisions only for exposure problems to the brick does not offer a global solution an don’t not restored the confidence of investors in the sector."

Bubble crash 2013, evictions
   The cash provision to which the government has forced banks, made with € 50 billion of cuts this year by the Government , will serve to cover overdrafts banks expect for the next year, another 50 billion, resulting of unemployment and evictions. Moreover, the government next year will have to continue making reforms to cover losses from banks: more cuts.
   Result of unemployment due to lack of investment in productive sectors, because of the diversion of funds to parasite sectors such as banking, politicians and corruption, is seen the next outbreak of a second harsh speculative bubble in our country. Although her symptoms have been mild and masked by the problem raised in the wake of the first is expected, the New Labour Reform Act finally put it clear. evictions will multiply. Analysts expect its outbreak in 2013.
   Spanish banks are not resigned to sell housing stock at market price. Moreover, they have proposed to put up with high prices before assume losses from lower prices (under mortage value), which have a negative impact on their accounts, with all that entails: state subsidies, foreign investment ...
   While in Ireland the floors have fallen since 2008 by 50% in Spain only 20%.
   Banks cling to the brick. Prefer houses to collapse tham loss assume. If houses are not offered for sale do not appear as losses until new rating, when collapsing in 20 or 30 years!
    But this strategy is obvious to sharks investitors, more aware than ever that investing in Spain is to invest in ruin. As shown in the IBEX 35 has fallen to 2004 levels, nearly half of its price last year. Since the beginning of the storm has already started a large capital flight to Germany. As happened in Greece in 2007.

The great problem of banks, politicians
   To said Banks in Spain is to refer those hybrid entities product of fusion between standard banks and saving banks, full of politicians who ran them at will. Political = banker, needs to be addressed. The government is little more than a dauber: spokesman that informs what the banks decide. For example the Minister of Economy Luis de Guindos was the second man aboard of Rodrigo Rato, former President of Caja Madrid Saving Bank, ex president of FMI, and ex minister of economy. In Spain saving banks had special fiscal laws for due to public influence. Grew the uncontrolling and saving banks become real state companies. When speculative bubble splodes in 2007 bankarian sector and contructio was the most affected because.
   First they tried to control the losses of banks with a bank reorganization, when the problem was the home price. Now, once "rearranged", the market is trying to control the supply of bank losses, when the problem is still the high prices of homes. Along the way welfare, the only guarantor of social peace, employment and production sectors, are lost.

But why all this stupid measures if real ones are well known?
   The only capitalistic way to finish the economical blocking is constrain banks to undersell houses. But that means "bankrupt of politicians" (politicians never ruin); to ruin themselves, something to which they are unwilling. The real owners of the houses and grounds are the politicians who sold the lots, which gave credit to construction and participated in them. Banking and politics is the same.
   The next crash will be an opportunity to the rest of the estate, brick by brick.
   The Spanish economy has not recovered from the first bubble burst, will be able to recover from this second?

This is not a crisis, is a SCAM!

sábado, 7 de enero de 2012

About the article: “The economic myths that no longer serve in 2012”

About the article: “The economic myths that no longer serve in 2012”

Enlightening article that ground pulling typical comments from talk shows and newspappers. With certain exceptions we take as valid. We will use their headings to get our own conclusions. Thank you, Pere.
<<The Economic myths that no longer serve in 2012.>> By Pere Rusiñol 07/01/2012

<<1 The stock market rise is always good for economy.>>
False: The stock market inflates and deflates at the rithm of speculative bubbles do: subprime speculation bubble splode in 2008, and began gold and food bubbles to take his place. Before this other bubbles burst like ".Com" in 2000, oil in 70s, etc ... Exploit these and many others will grow. It's a question of time. Is the system.
To raise the stock market is bad, to exist the stock market is illogical.

<<2 If dismissal becomes cheaper, companies will contrac workers>>
False: companies contract workers when are competitive. To become cheaper or not the dismissal itself will not create jobs. In few words, a company to be competitive must have cheap salaries, cheap raw materials, cheap transportation and expensive sales.
Both, raw material and final product, suffer the sieve of the transaction in a tax heaven, which increases their acquisition, pure speculation. To compete with other countries, currently producing competitively,  are required investment in technology for decades, as germany did, or use slave labor like china, brazil or mexico.

<<3 Govermente spending cuts calm markets>>
False: markets, companies and banks, buy and sell, and their forecasts are based on buying and selling expectatives. If spain can’t buy because money not flows companies will not invest. If spain can not sell because their products are expensive companies will not invest.
Goverment spending cuts, as the name suggests, cuts the flow of money. But instead of doing a cost-benefit study of institutions and services for a surgical cut goverments prefers hack and slash tecnics. This is due to the power exercised by those persons interested in such speculation. White glove criminals.

<<4 For a country, nothing is worse than default>>
False: worse than default for countries has been adopted the euro. Despite of the many benefits of the currency has had a problem of begginer: european countries have lost their monetary sovereignty. Sorry, germany exercise the monetarian sovereignty over europe. Without the devaluation of the currency (the cases of Argentina and Iceland or spain in 90s), that allows a hand down the price of their salaries and their products, there is only a way to recover from crisis: govern  adjustment, spending cuts and cropping.

<<5 It is impossible that the euro has reversed.>>
False: If the governments of spain and italy would fell in default as ireland, greece or portugal almost did, the situation would be untenable. Current policies do involve cuts state bankruptcy by year's end. No government in the euro countries wish the rupture, but don’t do nothing special to evoid it. The coin exchange process would be long and laborious, perhaps more than the crisis itself, but there are the plans.

<<6 Inequality propels economic.>>
True: more specifically, the capitalist economy. To say this is to confirm the direct relationship: the more unequal better economical beneficts. More poor people more richest? This paradox is a reality: the chinese slave laborers, thai or mexican maquilas drive the global economy.

<<7 Taxes can not raise to the rich>>
Right: Almost all the really rich live (are addressed) in tax havens. Increasing the tax burden change of address.

<<8 Gurus always right.>>
False: Only Goldman & Sanchs ones.

<<9 The guilty always pays>>
Pardon? In spain there are 8000 municipalities in bankruptcy (there are about 8000 municipalities), fifty saving banks in red numbers (there is about fifty saving banks), all banks supperted with resue plans, 3banks underwent intervented directly by govermentt. More than 1000 EREs (companies with dismissing plans) in 2007, as many in 2008 ... 5 million unemployed and no one in jail becouse of this situation.

<<10 The future of pensions is private>>
True: And more than true. In spain every companie pay a rate of salarie directly to the public service (seguridad social), working as a resistance box. Govern spend actually this many in others affairs as pay exterior debts. When this money finish coupled with the fact of financial markets pressures in the medium to long term, there will be a imposition of U.S. private pension system. Must be remembered that pension plans and insurances arethe main source of financial capital to investment along the planet. England argues that the money from these funds can not be used for risky investments, and tried to create a law to prevent it with no results.

<<11 If banks are helped credit will flow again>>
False: In order to restore the credit flows between banks should be undertake two conditions:
1 - That banks dispose of their toxic assets, unpaid mortgages, mutual funds- risk ... and not reinvested in them again (to recovered the deposit).
2 – To leave speculative intentions (to recover the trust).
Imposible at all.

martes, 8 de noviembre de 2011

Spanish Elections 20-N, 2011: The “Hidden plan” of Popular Party PP.


No doubt the PP, conservator right party, will win the electoral pantomime. Gradually, the party reveals government plan. Poor we!!!

Program of events:
- Privatization of the public sector, economic engine of the country. Goodbye to universal coverage.
- "Shawshank Redemption Law" implantation. Welcome S XIX!
- Derogation of "Abortion Laws". Baby boom!!!
- Derogation gay marriages. Goodbye dress in white.
- Review of the “Dependency Law”. Goodbye.
- Strengthening of the concerts and foundations companies. Hello speculation and theft.
- Depreciation of cost of dismissal. Hello to the Unemployment National Institute queue (Inem).
- Perpetuation of temporary work. Goodbye to credit.

Hidden plan:
- Reform “Status of Workers”. Goodbye to labor rights.
- Reform of “Sindication Rights”. Goodbye representative of workers in companies.
- Reform of the “Law to Strike”. Hello to slavery!!!
- Reform of the “Law of Public Demonstrations”. Hello to jail.
- Reform of the “Perception of Unemployment Subsides”. Goodbye to the subsidy paid by every worker in tax.

No sight of economical plan. What can we think of a leader who in 2007 proposed the construction of 1.000.0000 houses to get out of the crisis? Just invest in crisis!
http://www.publico.es/espana/2978/rajoy-dice-ahora-que-construira-un-millon-de-pisos-a-160-000-euros
First he does not understand what is happening in his environment. Pulse moves and unreasoned. Neoliberal precepts already fallen and not real economic reasons is th economic magic potion to create 3 million of works. It is evident that the market are uneables to regulates itself with offer and demand.
Second he looks after his own interests and his party and advocates for the support of the catholic church as ideological and social goal.

Explanation:
The economic model is based on consumption as engine, so poverty is the enemy of the system. Knew this well after the Second World War, the model of "welfare state" was the aim to follow in the West.
But the good times relaxed discipline and neoliberal thought they could do business at the expense of consumption, speculating. Speculating is artificially raise prices to make money, withdrawing money from other products, for example basic goods. So, when everything is speculative economy is paralyzed.

Result:
If you remove money from markets, accumulating with speculation, which is what happened, there is no consumption.
The poor quality of employmeny is only going to stop the credit flow becouse the uncertainty of devolution.
The uncovered social services will mean an impoverishment of family and consequent stagnation of credit.

The crystal ball:
-The production: Although it could be money nobody knows how to invest:
No Primary sector of the sea, fields and mines: everything is cheaper outside.
No Secondary sector of industry: everything is produced in germany, USA or china.
No Services Sector: no company can compete with public services in health and education unless they are dismantled, with the consequent impoverishment. The other activities expected to decrease consumption and no one risk not start businesses.
-Employment: imposible to generate, so simple. The consequences of precarious employment will impact directly on credit.
-Credit: not posible to create as restrictive policies, aside from the capitalization of the same, do it impossible. Remember that the millions of properties held by banks is money wasted if not sold. One can only hope the European direct credit. But used in what?

-Social rights: will be lost after a catholic concept of life based on appearance, charity and religious control of mind, key to the economical. An oppressed society does not think clearly.

We return to the laws of the 80's, with an economy of the 70’s, mindset of 40’s and population of 2010.
Among repressive laws, laws that did not work, permissiveness of speculation and total loss of control make us assure that spain will have a cabinet of the IMF or the ECB in the Moncloa before summer.

martes, 12 de julio de 2011

Unpayable debt of the United States, USA bankrupt,ghetto-country.

Blog el salmon

USA arises again raise the debt ceiling of the Federal Reserve. The present is situated in 14'3billion $ (14'3x10 ^ $ 12), being legally passed in May.

The Center for Budget and Policy Priorities, an independent budget analysis, predicts that overall deficit for 2012 states will add 103 billion dollars, slightly less than in 2011 (140thousand millions) and 2010 (191thousand millions), the absolute record since the Great Depression of the 30's. Between 2008 and 2010, the federal government plugged more than a third of the state holes through the bailout approved by the crisis. The plan ended in late June.

Since Nixon overturned the gold parity in the early 70's the currency production has not ceased. There are so many dollars that neither themselves know how many dollars have product. There are so many as grain of sand in the desert.
The value of money is fiduciary, that is, the state is guaranteeing that the title has the value it represents. So, because of mass production, based on debt and speculation on the currency, since then has lost its value by 40% compared to the rest. As fiducidiary the state commits to paying the debt generated. As guaranteeing 800 bilions dollars already has been injected from the Federal Reserve as, but arriving at certain points should yield assets, businesses or territory, such as Greece or Argentina. Yet China, through its rating agency Dagong has qualifying degrading the quality of goberment bonds of public debt from AA/Negative to A+/negative. They see some problems to be paid, so will not invest so much as before. But why china don't believe in USA recovery? Thee source of debts.

DEBT AND DEFICIT OF PRIVATE MANAGEMENT
40% of the debt is attributed to private companies, becouse of the hyper-consumerism and debt. Economical grow without fisical grow. Banks have generated bebt providing cheap credit that could not be paid. Not only the family, the entire society has lived on credit for more than 30 years. They brewing crisis 10 years refinanced, this is by investing in debt, increasing the percentage. But it is unpayable debt. Speculation created makes the value of goods and services decreased by the uncertainty that the price marked is real or not.
Relocated companies send thousands of employees to the street. As revenues continue to decline.
Companies are getting smaller, business groups of 5-10 people who manage a trade mark, investing groups. But the product charge to a company of the 3rd world or emerging country, thereby increasing national unemployment. Despite of tariffs is U.S.a major consumer of Chinese products, its biggest rival in the world thanks to this label which falsely described the products as americans.Unemployment has risen to 10%. Increased unemployment, reduced purchasing power and favor raising and over most opponents. Eagles of business.
During the process, as speculative value, significant transactions are made in fiscal paradises so less taxes are collected.
Finally the big companies do not pay taxes. Boeing, Citibank or Bank of America, among thousands of others, do not pay it for 3 years, hoping to attract the attention of investors, as in Ireland.
The day they want to recover the companies should be requalified and auditored again to know thieir real price. That day we take a surprise, as seen in Greece, becouse the lay of speculation will fall and could be see the purchase value.

DEBT AND WAR.
To U.S. foreign wars do not come free, is blamed by 10 to 50% of the debt:

During the last decade have spent 444 billion dollars in Afghanistan, and a total of at least 1.3 billion on the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. This year only spending in Afghanistan is about 119 billion (since 2010, spending on the war is over in Iraq.) The government spends a millions of dollars a year for each soldier deployed in Afghanistan, CBS News estimates.

Has it been beneficial or harmful? The weapons lobbies, which are the oil ones, believed that controling 1st producer of opium and the 2nd oil reserves in the world will secured the hegemony secured for the foreseeable future. USA has spent between 10% and 50% of its energy, of his money to keep these two occupations. War is profitable: enter, take and go. But the business of the occupation can not be enough becouse creates a 10to 50% debt to the country that practice.
The normal practice has been the installation of military bases in other countries. But agreed basis, as in Puerto Rico, Mexico, Colombia or all of the Middle East. USA has over 800 military bases arranged along the world in general were not given many problems. With 55 bases and 600 outposts (control points, barracks, offices, arsenals, ports and prisons) in Iraq, which maintains a population of 60,000 soldiers. In Afghanistan, speech bases and outposts (idem) add 700. If we add to construction, equipment, maintenance person, plus subsidies of dead, wounded and maimed. Spend!

DEBT AND DEFICIT OF GOVERNANCE.
The debt, which currently stands at 139% of GDP will increase by about 10% each year until put no remedy. The states are getting the hardest hit. Minnesota has filed for bankruptcy, leaving some 22,000 officers on the doll. California, Illinois, Florida and New York have been suffocated in debt due to the housing bubble. It is estimated that next year could be 150,000 plus fired, they would join the 650,000 laid off since 2008.
USA already had its own rescue plan in 2008, it was agreed injection of 800 billion of these 150billion went to direct rescue of the states.
Now the government withdraw the assistance arises that has not sent to these states.

CONCLUSIONS.
The fragility of the system relies on human greed. But advocates of the system, the idealists, theorists and economists that believe that ths system works or is the best possible, or are liars or are idiots.
If you have an economy based on consumption keeps production. If you facilitate loans to ensure the consumption-production. If further increase household debt to maintain social order. If you allow speculation. If you have a society based on the sale and do not control the prices are going to have problems.
The country's debt is large, from families to states and private companies. Refinancing the debt does not end the problem, and eventually postponed it worse. The problem is that the goods or services is not received and the debt will never be paid.
The state is the guarantor of the price of money, but if you cut their power, their actives, cut atributions, employees, you are subtracting confidence in the state, so that depreciates. China has lost confidence that the debt will be pay off, so that they have corrected on the risk rating of the bond debt.
The hyper-consumerism and debt and lead to speculation and refinancing, creating unpayable debt. In their search for cheap goods, they consum products of the adversary, China, like it were Americans.
The quest for greater economic yield decapitalized the companies and relocated factories in emerging countries, thier competitors.
The debt of the war shows the strength of the arms lobby. Shows that this, oil and opium are ths same bussines, hence the interest in this resources and not others.
The state is willing to fall and firm bankruptcy if this does not diminish their investment in arms or do not touch private property. Cut in public what it takes. Hence his stubbornness to keep the occupied territories. But even if the state falls and only remaining state employees of the Federal Reserve to make dollar flood the world, debt will grow to engulf them. It seems that everything's up in the past passes bill: consumer and military.

If the U.S. is in a situation so bad, why still the benchmark?
USA controls the internet with 4 of 4 IP managers worldwide, 50 telecommunications satellites declared. Owns 50% of patents worldwide. It has 33% of the billionaires and 80 of the 100 most wealthy and influential in the world. Controls NATO, the UN, the IMF. The global oil benchmark, Brent, is in dollars. Their sphere of political influence is still very wide, including: the whole of Europe, Morocco, Egypt, israle, Saudi, South Africa, Turkey, Tibet, Thailand, South Korea, Philippines, Japan, Australia, Mexico, Colombia, Bolivia.
Despite of all things are not going well. At least not to all people, and threatens to become a country ghetto. It appears that have created a monster that threatens to swallow. With the first state to bankruptcy and five more incubating a chain reaction to start.
But what gives the real value is its army. That is the value of its currency. It ensures that ships are moving, which circulates oil and energy is not depleted. Therefore, although its disintegration from the inside, will not fall without dragging everything with his fall.
If U.S. does not recover from the army part of the invested in recent years, even cutting the other two sources of debt, it will continue to grown and virtually the economy will never recover the increasing benefits.
Topple once Germany and Japan in the war. Russia economically. Let's see what they do with China.

martes, 5 de julio de 2011

Production to offer vs production to demand, who will win? Round 1

LAW OF OFFER AND DEMAND:
The model is based on the relationship between the price of goods and sales of the same and assumes that in a perfectly competitive market, price is set at one point, balance point, in which there is a depletion of the market, this is, everything produced is sold and there is no unmet demand.

The postulate of offer and demand involves three features:
I. - When, at current price P, D demand exceeds offer the price tends to increase. When offer exceeds demand, the price tends to decrease.
II .- An increase in price tends to decrease demand and increase offer. A decrease in price tends to increase demand and reduce supply.
III: The price tends to a level whrt demand equals offer.
The market is the place where goods are exchanged, for money or not.
The law is fulfilled if there is fair competition.
The not sold offering is the stock or assets accumulated or stored.

PRODUCTION FOR THE OFFER.
The current production system. Those bids, which have not necessarily be the producers, try to create demand through advertising and and generate dependencies of secondary needs, generating consumism and speculation. The sellers in competition, resulting in the overproduction. Only an awareness of savings and knowledge of the true personal needs can slow, not stop, this tendency. The system moves around concepts that are circulary interrelated, unable to know the cause and affect or what is the most important. The system walks alone.
...>superproduction> competition> consumism> speculation> superproduction> ...

OVERPRODUCTION (superproduction): occurs to compete producting much more quantity and cheaper, so it results in the accumulation of goods. From the raw material just the part that brings greater economic benefits in the short term is use, all the rest is waste. In addition a degradation of stocks happend, increasing the residues. What leads to environmental degradation and consumption of nonrenewable natural resources. Leads to unemployment becouse the accumulation of stocks, stored goods waiting to be revalued and the inducted expiry or programated obsolescence of products to increase consumption. So that is created the concept of fashion or trend.

COMPETITION: in its strict sense, implies that if companies produce goods for money the success of one harm the rest. Theorically serves to reduce the fare for the complainant, but once a company dominates the market becomes monopoly or trust, increasing prices virtually without limit. Companies design products to make them more consumed, not to be more efficient or better quality, this is secondary. Implies a loss of quantity and quality of both raw materials and wages to reduce costs. Leads to aggressive and misleading advertising. Decreases the exchange of information, so there is industrial espionage. Creations are protected by laws of a copy right. Competition produces cartel cases -the companies stablish prices and distribute the territory- and self-competition -the company is divided into several brands that compete each other as they were different ones-. They try to diversify and find new applications for their products, occuping more niches. For example we find sindicates that offer turistic tours. Because the hypothesis of continuous increased of profits, a company is viable only if grows a percentage each year. The competition reaches the level of aggression, as in the wars for resources, oil, opium, diamonds, and business of arms.

CONSUMISM, CONSUMPTIONISM is the accumulation of unnecessary products, superfluous, produced by the acquisition of individual secondary needs. The individual assumes that society creates, but really are created by the advertising, in which its spends an enormous amount of resources through a constant bombing and omnipresence. This adds displays a set of social values that the individual feels natural and normal. It creates the concept of fashion and trend to justify sales. What makes people accept that these are ephemeral, so the product does not have to endure. Expiration is accepted and produced with an induced expiration. Some ignorance is need about the product to consume, so significant data about this product are hide.

SPECULATION that buyers purchase items, to be revalued, and sold. Buyer becomes offerer and beneficing from the difference. This leads to periodically increase of price of a product according to a cycle, for 6 to 10 years, until its price is unaffordable and collapses quickly, within 1 year for more or less, consumption and prices, causing loss or crisis.
Influence the trends, as invest in companies. Com in 90's, or currently construction, food and metals.
Another effect is the stock exchage markets, where it is invests in gambling companies that are believed to be more profitable and insurance companies, in which it is given s value to the risk.

ARE THERE ALTERNATIVES REGARDING THE MODEL OF PRODUCTION IN THE CAPITALIST SYSTEM?
Capitalism is the social order resulting from democratic politics, private property and unregulated economy, which allows the existence of markets and accumulation.
There is no alternative becouse by definition produces who has the means of production. They are producers, market intermediaries and banks, which control the production through property, investments and loans, controling the economy. Change the model means change hole the system.

OTHER MODELS OF PRODUCTION, PRODUCTION FOR THE CLAIM.
A more rational system would be the production-for-demand, in which goods are produced what is request, eliminating overproduction.
Imply that eliminating the market? see.
In theory prevents the accumulation of stocks in the producer, but could be acummulation on the “buyer”, to again become offerer, that is, to speculate. As the offerer is “buyer” we enter into a loop. Competition and overproduction continue. Production-for-demand is necessary but not sufficient.

NOMINAL OR PERSONAL PRODUCTION.
If there is nominal or personal production there is no accumulation in the consumer, to form a stock that becomes offerer. Now we remove the marking, exchange, becouse there is no sense to exchange one thing for another if you order it new.
Must be satisfied that:
a-producer is known and can not make or store more than requested by the consumer.
b-the consumer is known and can not sue or store more than they will consume.
c-a person or company can be a producer and consumer if don't accumulate.
It is lose anonymity at the exchange, ie exchange public, which is capable of being controlled at any point of production, transmission, distribution and consumption.

How to access services? Upon request, and take away or home delivery, which can create queues and waiting and a market of products and services for immediate consumption or unique objects. It could be solve increasing the production or services.

CHANGING CONCEPTS IN THE NOMINAL PRODUCTION:
Overproduction or superproduction- only can be given if allowed to accumulate assets. If it is eliminated the concept of planned obsolescence, fashion and trend it is loose. It would increase the durability of the products. To reduce the consumption and demand increase the quality and satisfaction with the product. SATISFACTION or complacency is the key to avoid overproduction. As it is not necessary to overproduce could only diminish the quality of products to supply a large demand on time. This is true PRODUCTION AS CAPACITY.
Increasing yield and profit of raw material decreasing the residues. To save,  production for the offer does not processed raw materials to the end, taking just the most valuable or easily processed, discarding the rest and creating a residue that is wasted.
Increasing the yield of raw materials increases the cost of personnel, equipment and facilities, or energy, but reduces waste and demand for this and other raw materials, which lowers the overall cost. 
Could be a unsatisfactory product wich could be reject. It could be discarded. If it is not neccesary nothing would happend. If it is neccesary the satisfactory sustitute product could create expectatives and so that speculation till the most part of population acces to it.

Competition, if it streamlines offer and comsum does not make sense that a person earn money exchanged for goods or property. It is only going to deliver what is need, and will be nominally. So private property would be eliminated. Companies does not obtein benefit but they continue to produce for the demand. The company must self adapt to this condition worrying only cover the demand. If no one compete nothing impede COLLABORATION and join forces.

Who owns the company? The whole of society, communal property, and its workers their operators. The company only grows when demand grows, which in final terms is when population grows, so there is a pasive growing .
- The company that offers a lower quality can request help for their adjustment to consum or gradually disappear.
- It should be favoritism to access unique goods or services. Is solved by increasing production or services.
- Should be the effect of loss of quality to satisfice the demand. It is solved by increasing the capacity of the company (either for labor, equipment, raw materials or facilities).
- It can be an imbalance of work load between companies, whose products are most popular. This requires knowing what they are most sought after redistributing work and accommodate companies to the new requirements
- It can be distribution of workload within the company, increasing favoritism. Investing is partly a solution, by increasing staff and equipment.

Consumerism: When competition is deleted advertising disappear. By eliminating the market avoids speculation. Social values change. There will always be the man his natural feelings of selfishness, envy and need for accumulation, but far from fashion, trend and market-imposed expiration. It remains only CONSUMPTION BY THE NEEDS:
-It should be an excess of demand or slow down that precludes access to a resource, with cases of accumulation of stock exchanges. To prevent this we must know what is demand, increase production and rationalize consumption: first to those most in need. Should be pursued to the accumulators of property.
-It could be a marginal market for used or unique products, but not new.
-It could be a difference between utilitarian products, necessary, and unnecessary products, superfluous. This last, to not disappear and be acepted, should be converted into useful, if not no one will demad them.

Speculation-only can be if allowed to accumulate assets. It could be a marginal speculation in the exchange of unique products.

CONCLUSIONS:
The law of offer and demand is not met, directs.
Production direct for the offer is logical but not rational, becouse does not adjust to the needs and circumstances of reality.
Competition, consumerism, speculation and overproduction are necessarily linked and you can't influence one without changing the others.
Production to demand by itself is not enough to change the mode of production, the system reverts to towards production for the offer.
The nominal, individual or personal production controls the offer and demand and avoids most of the drawbacks of both. Obviously not all.
Procurement of goods produced by application and taking away or delivery.
Private property is replaced by the individual and communal property, thus avoiding competition, consumerism, speculation and overproduction.
The values of competition, consumerism, speculation and overproduction contradict those of collaboration, consumption as need, and production as capacities.

In the article "Is capitalsim in crisis? long life to capitalism!!!" We deeply look into the private property and the political system, democracy, the causes of this kind of production.
http://tarcoteca.blogspot.com/2011/06/is-capitalism-in-crisis-there-are.html 
In the next article will look at how the institutions would be in this production system.