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miércoles, 11 de enero de 2012

Iran versus USA, final battle. Will Iran get the bomb before to be destroyed by USA?

The hostility between Iran and USA enters in final stage due to the announcements by Iran of the impending acquisition of the atomic bomb and the U.S. economic weakness, unable to keep working its war machine through a minor illness, a cancer called neoliberalism that has finished emptying the state saves while dismantling the industrial network. The match field is all Middle East, favoring Iran.

Iran competes clockwise.
- Iran considers that the atomic bomb is “the safeguard” of its national integrity. They are able to throw even in their own territory. Iran need the bomb ASAP.
- Iran knows that America is losing its trade war with China and emerging powers. Iran needs time time to USA weaken and international blockade breaks.
- He knows that America can not implement more measures of blocking and international penalties. The following measures would be war measures. Iran needs time to prevent the invasion.
- The provocation maneuvers, in Ormuz Strait, latinamerica visit, american spy execution, are fakes trying to wear to United States preparing an economically unviable invasion. That weakness state would allow two things: emerging powers economical ending with USA (a 5 year plan), and finish the international blockade. Iran needs time for USA to weaken.
- Iran know that USA is unable to maintain territorial occupancy or another warfront: Iraq and Afghanistan have cost the hegemony, increasing debt and decreasing yields. And the longer time pass will make USA more incapable to do war. Iran needs time.

USA competes against the clock.
- USA knows that had no ally in emerging regional powers against Iran. At most can prevent their intervention agaisnt itself. USA is alone.
- USA knows iran would use the nuclear bomb in their own territory against an American attack. It would be virtually unassailable. USA must not allow the development of the bomb. It must attack now.
- USA knows that once Iran has the nuclear bomb will lost forever the second largest oil reserves in the world, in favor of their rivals. Needs to attack soon.
- Knows that, the longer the situation be, it will be financially weaker because it is losing the trade war with the emerging powers. Needs to attack soon.
- USA knows the topography of the country is not like Iraq, the conflict would extend for decades. With this maneuver would prevent access to oil from China and Russia, but the cost would be too high. USA can not attack now.
- USA know that cannot support another occupation war. USA can not attack now.

The crystal ball:
- Iran will get the desired bomb.
- United States will not attack. It will take more seriously the trade war. Shall, not institutionally, admit the loss of global hegemony and will focus increasingly in South America and Africa, new scenes of confrontation. And emerging powers comercial pacts.
- In Middle Eastern emerging powers, Turkey and Saudi Arabia, Russia, even India will take the lead and compete for influence, resources, raw materials and oil.

And the people of Iran and USA? Will continue Enslaved as usual.
Here no one wins.

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